Wednesday, July 28, 2010 SEMICON West meeting shares semi market insights

During SEMICON West 2010, held in July in San Francisco, the Electronics Media Group (Solid State Technology/Advanced Packaging, Small Times, Photovoltaics World, and the ConFab) staff got together with members of the industries to discuss technology and business trends. The "2010 Market & Technology Update" included keynotes from editor Pete Singer, analyst Bill McClean, and Andrew Thompson of Proteus Biomedical. Wish you could have made it? Here are some of the key points expressed by speaker Bill McClean, as well as a video interview with McClean to summarize.

Bill McClean, president IC Insights, gives a bullish semiconductor industry forecast at SEMICON West 2010, with at least 30% growth for the IC market. The seasonally strong second half of the year is just beginning. IC Insights predicts strong PC sales in 2010, up to 338 million (2009 saw 286 million PCs shipped). Cell phone shipments will also greatly outpace 2009 (up 12%), and Q'04 2010 cell shipments are on pace to surpass the pre-recession Q'04 2007 levels.

Want more good news? IC shipments in 2010 are consistently above the annual trend, reaching above 50 billion units in Q'03 2010. However, average selling price (ASP) on ICs continues the general downward trend seen in this decade.

Capacity increases following a recession are par for the course, McClean says, and 2010-2011 will see capacity grow, after shrinkage in 2008 and 2009, led by AMD/GlobalFoundries, Hynix, Samsung, UMC, and others. Geographically, capacity increases in Korea are fast making it the new Japan, a region that has dropped off considerably since 2005.

IC Insights' new 220-page Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report shows that the 2010 worldwide semiconductor market is forecast to register the largest dollar volume increase in history -- $72 billion (to $310 billion total).

Video: Bullish outlook on semiconductor manufacturing from Bill McClean

Speak with Bill McClean, IC Insights, about capacity, IC pricing, and other trends at
Keep an eye on the blog for video and key points from our other breakfast speakers as well.

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